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By Simon Fuller. Smart marketers. Many in marketing think augmented reality is the future rather than the present. But could there be widespread adoption of AR sooner than we think?
“Two thousand and nine has been a banner year for augmented reality, in that more and more people are being introduced to it, and becoming aware that the technology exists,” says Brian Selzer, co-founder of mobile AR outfit Ogmento.
“[Large-scale adoption of augmented reality is] likely within three years, if not sooner,” says Robert Rice, CEO of AR developers Neogence Enterprises. “Once the next generation of mobile devices and wearable displays that look like sunglasses are on the market, the adoption curve will accelerate dramatically.”
And the rise of the smartphone will play a mighty part in any AR revolution.
“Just look at the adoption of smartphones as the mobile handset of choice,” says Selzer. “These devices will only get better and less expensive over time. As more and more people have smartphones, they will start using augmented reality in their everyday lives.”
In 2010, it’s likely that this kind of mobile AR marketing will focus on apps that revolve around particular products or brands. But Ogmento reckons that later AR usage will evolve into something more like an AR network, whereby users can pick just what kind of AR they want to engage with.
“The long-term view is that the smartphone will eventually evolve into something more akin to eyewear for heavy AR users,” adds Selzer.
But one concern for the widespread adoption of AR is that many of the early innovations in the area – such as the Mini webcam experience from BMW – might make the tech seem like a bit of fun, rather than something that’s actually useful in the long-term.
“[There is a] risk of setting expectations too high about what the technology can do, or dismissing it now based on the early experiments that are somewhat novelty and very gimmicky,” says Rice. “Most of the technology pieces are out there, they just need to be brought together and leveraged in the right way. AR must be useful as well as engaging.”
“The challenge is to educate people that we are just getting started, and not to see AR as a fad,” explains Selzer. “It’s early in the AR game, things are still evolving. The next wave of mobile AR will be more on a hyper-local level, where actual people, places and things trigger the AR experiences. Challenges for that include hardware speed for tracking, camera resolution, battery life, creating platform standards, the list goes on… [but] we will certainly tackle these things over time. “There are great experiences to be had with the current technology, and things will evolve,” Selzer adds. “Despite any challenges, the future for mobile AR is very bright.”