The dark art of viral forecasting
By Simon Fuller. Viral seeding specialists Unruly Media have relaunched its Viral Video Chart – a ranking of what’s hot in the viral business – and this time around, the listing breaks out the activity by platform.
This means viewers can see what’s popular as well as just where a particular piece of content is doing the rounds. Is the vid gaining fans on Facebook, say? Or popping up all over Twitter?
In theory, then, this should offer marketers and creative types a little insight into what makes the audience of each separate platform tick. However, it’s not always clear just what’s going to be big, and where, from the off.
“Predicting viral success remains a dark art,” says Sarah Wood, operations director at Unruly. “In retrospect it’s easy to rationalise the success of Embrace Life on Twitter, Illuminati Symbolism on blogs, and Messi Pepsi on Facebook, but in advance it’s not usually so obvious which content will capture imaginations and become the next Internet sensation.”
And then there are some videos that just do well on everything. Take Shakira’s Waka Waka video, heading up the Viral Video Chart at the time of writing, and pretty popular across each platform too.
So do marketers have any chance of predicting what’ll work on specific platforms?
“If the soundtrack is a key component of your viral ad, think Facebook as [its] users are more likely to share music videos than any other type of video content – Justin Bieber, Lady Gaga and Shakira are all popular at the moment,” says Wood. “With 400 million-plus active users, Facebook has a large global reach and a relatively mainstream user base.
“The blogosphere retains its distinct tech bias, its love of geekery and its talent for picking out the weird and wonderful. [It’s also] the platform where you’re likely to get the deepest, most extended levels of editorial commentary and viewer engagement. Twitter is the go-to platform if you’ve got newsworthy or topical video content and you’re looking to spread the word fast.
More on virality at our social media buzz event at the IAB
